Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -270 LT +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -5.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.1 (-14.1) | 136.4 (+22.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.5 (-15.5) | 137.7 (+21.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -4.9 (-15.9) | 138.6 (+20.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.5 (-15.5) | 137.0 (+22.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LT 75 – 69 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#110) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#81) | 0.69 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#96) | 0.78 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#48) | 0.543 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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