Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | LT +145 MTSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -7.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.3 (+7.3) | 131.3 (-14.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.6 (+8.6) | 126.9 (-9.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -7.4 (+8.4) | 128.0 (-11.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.6 (+8.6) | 130.8 (-13.8) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LT 75 – 69 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#262) | 4.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#236) | 0.86 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#251) | 0.97 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#262) | 0.577 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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