Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -535 CSUB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -15.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -11.7 (-13.7) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -9.9 (-11.9) | 149.4 (+10.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -11.3 (-13.3) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -11.9 (-13.9) | 150.1 (+9.9) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UCD 78 – 71 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#159) | -10.3 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#117) | -1.34 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#102) | -2.07 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#97) | 0.406 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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