Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +205 UCD -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -6.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.8 (-1.2) | 153.3 (-1.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.9 (-3.1) | 150.9 (+1.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.6 (-1.4) | 149.9 (+2.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -6.9 (-1.1) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UCD 78 – 71 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L15 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#320) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#286) | 0.08 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#313) | 0.23 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#321) | 0.497 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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