Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -190 CSUB +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -4.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.2 (-7.2) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.0 (-7.0) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.5 (-7.5) | 135.1 (+1.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -3.1 (-8.1) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UCD 78 – 71 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#224) | -4.2 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#146) | -0.73 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#172) | -0.81 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#115) | 0.444 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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