Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -125 UCD +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -4.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -1.7 (+9.3) | 135.7 (+3.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -2.9 (+8.1) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -1.1 (+9.9) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -1.0 (+10.0) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UCD 78 – 71 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#224) | -4.1 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#237) | 0.35 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#219) | -0.11 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#251) | 0.528 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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