Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +140 UCD -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -0.0 (+19.0) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.1 (+18.9) | 134.2 (-3.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.3 (+19.3) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.1 (+19.1) | 134.1 (-3.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UCD 78 – 71 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#267) | -0.9 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#280) | -0.05 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#278) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#313) | 0.487 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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