Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -600 CSUB +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -13.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -11.2 (-4.2) | 138.8 (+10.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -11.1 (-4.1) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -12.0 (-5.0) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -11.1 (-4.1) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#141) | -7.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#213) | -1.54 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#200) | -1.89 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#222) | 0.400 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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