Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -1350 PROV +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -15.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -13.5 (-19.5) | 167.0 (-19.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -15.4 (-21.4) | 167.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -14.6 (-20.6) | 167.2 (-19.2) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -13.6 (-19.6) | 166.5 (-18.5) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PROV 75 – 72 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#17) | 6.3 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#47) | 0.57 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#36) | 1.09 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#24) | 0.526 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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