Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -950 PROV +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -13.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -15.2 (-2.2) | 163.6 (-6.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -14.0 (-1.0) | 159.4 (-2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -12.5 (+0.5) | 159.8 (-2.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -13.1 (-0.1) | 158.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PROV 75 – 72 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#19) | 8.4 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#20) | 1.05 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#19) | 1.58 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#18) | 0.506 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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