Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -1600 PROV +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -14.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -13.0 (-11.0) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -12.3 (-10.3) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -13.2 (-11.2) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -12.3 (-10.3) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PROV 75 – 72 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-14 |
| Home | 19-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#19) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#27) | 0.72 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#18) | 1.21 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#22) | 0.540 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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