Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -125 SJU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.3 (+1.7) | 146.0 (+1.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.7 (+1.3) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.4 (+0.6) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.9 (+1.1) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#51) | 12.2 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#61) | 1.50 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#58) | 2.03 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#89) | 0.551 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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