Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +275 SJU -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -6.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.8 (-3.2) | 167.3 (-19.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.7 (-3.3) | 166.5 (-18.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -6.0 (-4.0) | 167.6 (-19.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.2 (-4.8) | 170.5 (-22.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PROV 75 – 72 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#70) | 18.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#95) | 2.97 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#81) | 3.85 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#174) | 0.626 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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