Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +200 SJU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -5.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.7 (+0.7) | 142.0 (-0.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -3.5 (+1.5) | 142.5 (-0.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -3.1 (+1.1) | 143.5 (-1.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.1 (+1.1) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PROV 75 – 72 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 19-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#82) | 16.1 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#89) | 2.00 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#91) | 3.42 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#51) | 0.619 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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