Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +270 DAY -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -11.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.1 (+8.1) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.0 (+9.0) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -9.9 (+7.9) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.8 (+8.8) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAY 65 – 49 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-10 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#295) | 6.8 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#293) | 0.89 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#316) | 1.21 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#322) | 0.537 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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