Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -105 DAY -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -2.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.1 (+5.1) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.4 (+5.4) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.7 (+4.7) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.0 (+5.0) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAY 65 – 49 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#131) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#109) | 1.34 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#105) | 1.78 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.569 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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