Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -2100 LUC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +27 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -19.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -16.7 (+10.3) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -13.9 (+13.1) | 141.9 (-12.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -15.4 (+11.6) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -16.7 (+10.3) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAY 65 – 49 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-10 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#86) | -9.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#75) | -1.75 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#75) | -2.71 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#69) | 0.418 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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