Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -111 DAY -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -4.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.8 (+5.8) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -2.5 (+7.5) | 138.2 (+10.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.0 (+6.0) | 135.4 (+13.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.2 (+6.2) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAY 65 – 49 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#98) | 12.7 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#65) | 2.50 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#87) | 3.07 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#59) | 0.640 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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