Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -650 LUC +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -12.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.4 (-9.4) | 142.4 (+21.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.6 (-8.6) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -10.2 (-8.2) | 142.3 (+21.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -10.4 (-8.4) | 143.4 (+20.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAY 65 – 49 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#71) | -0.7 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#74) | 0.42 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#73) | 0.49 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#72) | 0.517 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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