Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +225 DAY -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +16 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -8.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.0 (-9.0) | 130.6 (-16.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.9 (-8.1) | 134.4 (-20.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -8.2 (-7.8) | 135.6 (-21.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -8.2 (-7.8) | 131.5 (-17.5) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 61.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#260) | 7.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#256) | 0.86 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#258) | 1.32 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#277) | 0.544 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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