Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -298 HCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -9.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -7.8 (+9.2) | 137.6 (-8.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -8.1 (+8.9) | 142.1 (-13.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -7.3 (+9.7) | 143.7 (-14.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -8.3 (+8.7) | 140.0 (-11.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UIW 79 – 75 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 8-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#163) | -4.9 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#217) | -1.87 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#192) | -2.23 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#241) | 0.416 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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