Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +170 UIW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -0.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -0.8 (+3.8) | 148.6 (+20.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -0.6 (+3.6) | 148.9 (+20.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.5 (+3.5) | 146.8 (+22.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.4 (+3.4) | 148.6 (+20.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UIW 79 – 75 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#354) | -11.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#350) | -1.94 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#351) | -2.67 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#353) | 0.379 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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