Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -188 HCU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -5.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -4.1 (-0.1) | 149.5 (+4.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -3.3 (+0.7) | 147.4 (+6.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -3.2 (+0.8) | 148.1 (+5.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -3.8 (+0.2) | 150.1 (+3.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 84.8 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#329) | -13.0 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#332) | -2.04 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#339) | -2.70 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#347) | 0.398 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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