Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +105 UIW -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -2.0 (+7.0) | 134.5 (+22.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -1.7 (+6.7) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.7 (+5.7) | 134.4 (+22.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.7 (+5.7) | 134.3 (+22.7) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UIW 79 – 75 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#297) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#319) | -0.93 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#303) | -0.95 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#308) | 0.439 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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