Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -170 HCU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -2.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -0.8 (+9.2) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -2.6 (+7.4) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.7 (+9.3) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -1.2 (+8.8) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UIW 79 – 75 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#259) | -5.2 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#322) | -0.82 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#301) | -0.73 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#332) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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