Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +100 UIW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -1.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -1.6 (+7.6) | 135.3 (+20.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -2.2 (+8.2) | 133.1 (+22.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -1.5 (+7.5) | 135.5 (+20.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -1.1 (+7.1) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UIW 79 – 75 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 7-15 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#294) | -3.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#318) | -1.27 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#309) | -1.63 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#335) | 0.420 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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