Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -8000 GWEB +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -25.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -20.2 (-9.2) | 157.9 (+7.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -17.9 (-6.9) | 156.1 (+8.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -18.3 (-7.3) | 155.1 (+9.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -20.4 (-9.4) | 156.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WIN 96 – 93 GWEB |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GWEB 89 – 83 WIN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | GWEB 65 – 64 WIN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GWEB 79 – 74 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 1-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-9 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 86.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#146) | -20.1 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#237) | -3.83 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#220) | -5.33 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.395 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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