Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -225 GWEB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -6.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.4 (-5.4) | 153.2 (-24.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.8 (-4.8) | 150.9 (-21.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.3 (-5.3) | 151.2 (-22.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.1 (-5.1) | 153.3 (-24.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WIN 88 – 77 GWEB |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WIN 96 – 93 GWEB |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GWEB 89 – 83 WIN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GWEB 79 – 74 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#159) | -2.4 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#184) | -0.11 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#173) | -0.42 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#177) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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