Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB +145 WIN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +6 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -3.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -1.9 (+4.1) | 155.8 (+16.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -1.4 (+4.6) | 154.5 (+17.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -2.3 (+3.7) | 152.5 (+19.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -1.8 (+4.2) | 152.9 (+19.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WIN 88 – 77 GWEB |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WIN 96 – 93 GWEB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | GWEB 65 – 64 WIN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GWEB 79 – 74 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 5-6 | 16-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#218) | -2.3 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#236) | 0.04 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#231) | -0.08 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#211) | 0.505 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 35.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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