Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -240 GWEB +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +3 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -5.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.8 (-1.8) | 158.7 (+30.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.7 (-0.7) | 157.3 (+31.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.0 (-1.0) | 157.5 (+31.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.9 (-1.9) | 158.7 (+30.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WIN 88 – 77 GWEB |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GWEB 89 – 83 WIN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | GWEB 65 – 64 WIN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GWEB 79 – 74 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#204) | -4.1 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#179) | -0.54 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#180) | -0.71 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#176) | 0.486 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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