Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | GW -1800 LAS +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GW -20.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -16.8 (+5.2) | 146.5 (-14.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -14.4 (+7.6) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -15.4 (+6.6) | 148.7 (-16.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -16.8 (+5.2) | 149.2 (-17.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | GW 104 – 77 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GW 71 – 60 LAS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAS 73 – 67 GW |
| Mar 12, 2024 | LAS 61 – 60 GW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LAS 72 – 66 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#57) | -5.9 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#87) | -1.55 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#83) | -1.96 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#85) | 0.454 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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