Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +330 GW -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +27 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -8.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -7.2 (-19.8) | 140.8 (+40.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -7.9 (-19.1) | 139.8 (+41.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -6.2 (-20.8) | 139.1 (+41.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -6.5 (-20.5) | 139.6 (+41.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | GW 77 – 55 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GW 71 – 60 LAS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAS 73 – 67 GW |
| Mar 12, 2024 | LAS 61 – 60 GW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LAS 72 – 66 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#219) | 8.7 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#235) | 0.34 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#231) | 0.68 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#225) | 0.532 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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