Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +220 UTC -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -3.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -3.9 (+11.9) | 146.8 (+3.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -2.8 (+10.8) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.1 (+11.1) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -2.7 (+10.7) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTC 109 – 61 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-8 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#353) | -8.3 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#342) | -1.70 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#337) | -2.13 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#339) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 60.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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