Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -1600 VMI +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +25 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -10.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -11.0 (+14.0) | 148.1 (+8.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -8.4 (+16.6) | 148.0 (+9.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -7.7 (+17.3) | 149.8 (+7.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -9.4 (+15.6) | 149.3 (+7.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTC 109 – 61 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 12-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#195) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#205) | -2.08 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#194) | -2.14 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#214) | 0.420 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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