Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -1600 VMI +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +48 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -13.2 (+34.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -11.8 (+36.2) | 145.7 (+24.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -11.4 (+36.6) | 148.3 (+21.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -10.4 (+37.6) | 144.8 (+25.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -11.2 (+36.8) | 145.2 (+24.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 8-7 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 84.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#219) | -11.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#194) | -4.16 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | -5.42 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#219) | 0.350 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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