Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +750 UTC -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -13.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -12.3 (+8.3) | 154.1 (+17.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -12.2 (+8.2) | 157.0 (+15.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -12.6 (+8.6) | 152.9 (+19.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -12.3 (+8.3) | 154.3 (+17.7) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTC 109 – 61 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 0-15 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#356) | 1.2 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#361) | 0.62 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.89 (#359) | 0.55 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#355) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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