Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -395 MONM +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +14 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -9.5 (-23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.4 (-21.4) | 133.3 (-23.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.5 (-21.5) | 134.0 (-24.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.0 (-21.0) | 132.7 (-22.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.1 (-21.1) | 132.4 (-22.4) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MONM 51 – 43 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#162) | -4.9 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#147) | -1.48 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#131) | -2.21 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#99) | 0.422 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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