Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -275 MONM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -5.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.3 (+11.7) | 133.0 (+8.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.9 (+15.1) | 132.9 (+8.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.0 (+15.0) | 133.8 (+7.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.5 (+14.5) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MONM 51 – 43 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | -1.2 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#160) | 0.24 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#160) | 0.27 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#154) | 0.517 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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