Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -125 TOW +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -1.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.5 (+2.5) | 133.3 (+9.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -0.3 (+0.7) | 133.4 (+9.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -0.5 (+0.5) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.0 (+1.0) | 133.6 (+9.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MONM 51 – 43 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | -0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#207) | 0.00 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#213) | -0.09 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#220) | 0.529 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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