Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +145 TOW -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -2.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.5 (-2.5) | 136.4 (+3.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.6 (-3.4) | 134.8 (+5.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.4 (-2.6) | 136.7 (+3.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.5 (-2.5) | 137.2 (+2.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MONM 51 – 43 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#272) | -1.0 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#275) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#277) | 0.41 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#266) | 0.550 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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