Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +160 TOW -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +8 | 94 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -4.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -3.1 (+4.9) | 131.0 (-37.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -1.3 (+6.7) | 127.4 (-33.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -3.5 (+4.5) | 134.9 (-40.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -3.1 (+4.9) | 134.4 (-40.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#193) | -1.2 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#117) | -0.47 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#117) | -0.48 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#133) | 0.474 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 44.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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