Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -500 MONM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -8.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.5 (+18.5) | 136.6 (-2.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -8.4 (+17.6) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -8.5 (+17.5) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.4 (+18.6) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MONM 51 – 43 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#176) | -6.4 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#120) | -1.12 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#141) | -1.40 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#76) | 0.457 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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