Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -170 ND +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -4.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -2.8 (-1.8) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -4.3 (-3.3) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -4.4 (-3.4) | 136.6 (+6.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -3.8 (-2.8) | 135.5 (+7.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ND 112 – 110 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#68) | 9.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#49) | 1.79 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#53) | 2.76 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#82) | 0.577 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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