Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ND -190 CAL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +2 | 222 | Won |
| Massey | ND -5.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+74.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.3 (-1.3) | 143.6 (+78.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -5.4 (-3.4) | 144.7 (+77.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -5.5 (-3.5) | 146.1 (+75.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -5.0 (-3.0) | 146.2 (+75.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | CAL 72 – 71 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#93) | 3.4 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#141) | 0.30 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#118) | 0.50 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#178) | 0.491 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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