Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | STBK -218 NCAT +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -6.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -4.4 (-3.4) | 137.2 (+23.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -4.7 (-3.7) | 137.4 (+23.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -4.4 (-3.4) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -4.7 (-3.7) | 136.6 (+24.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | STBK 69 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#236) | -7.4 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#223) | -1.47 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#244) | -2.09 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.412 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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