Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +130 NCAT -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -0.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.4 (+10.4) | 137.4 (-9.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.2 (+10.2) | 136.3 (-8.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.4 (+10.4) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.1 (+10.1) | 137.5 (-9.5) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#337) | -7.3 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#315) | -0.73 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#324) | -1.09 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#308) | 0.472 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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