Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT -155 STBK +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -4.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.9 (+0.1) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -2.7 (-1.7) | 139.5 (+5.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -2.4 (-1.4) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -2.5 (-1.5) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | STBK 69 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#321) | -11.2 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#339) | -1.94 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#342) | -2.52 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#338) | 0.429 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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