Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | STBK -130 NCAT +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -0.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -1.1 (+13.9) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -2.7 (+12.3) | 140.5 (+22.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -1.0 (+14.0) | 143.1 (+19.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -0.9 (+14.1) | 142.2 (+20.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | STBK 69 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#346) | -10.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#331) | -2.80 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#334) | -3.24 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#321) | 0.375 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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