Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STBK -1600 NCAT +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -13.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -9.6 (+6.4) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -11.2 (+4.8) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -11.2 (+4.8) | 144.3 (-0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -11.0 (+5.0) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | STBK 69 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#223) | -12.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | -1.75 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#174) | -2.26 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.436 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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