Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -1.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -1.7 (-16.7) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.8 (-15.8) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -2.0 (-17.0) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -2.2 (-17.2) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | STBK 69 – 59 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#314) | -10.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#277) | -1.55 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#290) | -2.06 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#259) | 0.435 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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